KARACHI : There is all likelihood of another interest rate cut when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will meet today (Monday).
Analysts expect that the central bank will slash rates by 200 basis points (bps) to 13pc.
The committee had on Nov 4 reduced the key interest rate by 250 bps, taking it from 17.5pc to 15pc after a fourth successive cut since June. It was expected at that time that the SBP would reduce the rate by 200 bps. The MPC noted that the strict regulations by the government played an important role in sustaining the downward trend in inflation.
According to analysts, the SBP is likely to adopt a gradual approach, maintaining positive real interest rates and focusing on inflation.
SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad will announce the policy decision after the MPC meeting.
LAUDBALE ECONOMIC MEASURES
Pragmatic steps by the government, including curb on illegal foreign-exchange trade, has boosted country’s foreign exchange reserves to a record high this fiscal.
The news website Bloomberg quoted the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data in its report on Pakistan that remittances from the overseas Pakistanis to their families rose 34pc to $14.8 billion in the first five months of the current financial year 2024-25 from a year ago.
The increase in remittance was the result of government’s crackdown on unofficial buying or selling of dollars as people started using the official banking channels for the purpose. The government’s action helped raise foreign exchange reserves to above $12 billion by November-end, the highest since March 2022.
It may be noted that the government had launched the crackdown on illicit dollar market and hoarders in September 2023 after reports of flight of greenback from the country. The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) raided offices of currency dealers, arrested people and also deployed officials in plainclothes at money exchanges in its efforts to curb illicit trade.
Finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb hopes that the government’s strategy will help increase remittances to an all-time high of $35 billion this year from $30 billion last year.
“The currency reforms do seem to have boosted remittances,” Bloomberg reported John Ashbourne, emerging-market economist at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company in London, as saying.
In Ashbourne’s opinion “the increase might be because remittances that had previously been sent using the black market are now being sent via official channels.”
The surge in remittances have helped Pakistan fill coffers with foreign exchange that reduces a major economic vulnerability that pushed the country to the brink of a default last year.
Pakistan has been implementing tough economic measures on the International Monetary Fund’s guidance and secured a $7 billion loan in September.
